Climate Change's Profound Impact on Pakistan's Agricultural Sector: A Deep Dive

From melting Himalayan glaciers to flooded farmlands, discover how a changing climate is threatening the very foundation of Pakistan's economy and food security. This deep dive reveals the stark realities facing millions and explores the critical path towards a resilient future.

Updated : Thu Aug 07 2025 11:57:07 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)

Executive Summary

Pakistan, despite its minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, faces an existential threat from climate change, with its agriculture-dependent economy bearing a disproportionately heavy burden. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the multi-faceted impacts, revealing a complex web of environmental shifts, direct agricultural losses, escalating water resource challenges, and severe socio-economic consequences. Accelerated glacier melt is disrupting vital river systems, while rising temperatures and erratic precipitation drive devastating floods and prolonged droughts, leading to significant yield reductions across staple crops like wheat, rice, and cotton, and severe losses in the livestock sector.

The confluence of these factors deepens food insecurity, exacerbates rural poverty, and compels climate-induced migration, creating systemic risks to national stability. Current adaptation efforts by farmers, while innovative, often face limitations, and national policies, though comprehensive on paper, encounter significant implementation barriers, including funding shortfalls and coordination gaps. Long-term projections indicate further declines in agricultural productivity and intensified water stress, necessitating a fundamental transformation of the sector. The findings underscore an urgent imperative for comprehensive, well-funded, and integrated climate-smart strategies, coupled with robust international support, to build a resilient agricultural future for Pakistan and safeguard the livelihoods of millions.

1. Introduction: Pakistan's Agricultural Foundation and Climate Vulnerability

Overview of Pakistan's Agriculture-Dependent Economy

Pakistan's economic landscape is intrinsically linked to its agricultural sector, which forms the bedrock of national sustenance and development. This sector is the primary employer in rural areas, providing livelihoods for millions of households and directly engaging nearly 37.4% of the labor force.¹ Its contribution to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranges from approximately 19.3% to 24%.¹ The stability and productivity of this agrarian base are therefore paramount to Pakistan's overall economic well-being and food security. The health of the agricultural sector directly influences rural income levels, poverty rates, and the nation's capacity to feed its growing population.¹

Global Context of Pakistan's Climate Change Vulnerability

Despite contributing less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan is one of the nations most severely affected by the impacts of climate change.⁶ This disproportionate burden is consistently highlighted in international assessments, with Pakistan ranking as the fifth most vulnerable country in the 2020 Global Climate Risk Index report and eighth in other World Bank and GCRI reports.² The consequences have been dire, evidenced by the loss of 9,989 lives and an economic toll of $3.8 billion from 152 severe weather events between 1999 and 2018.² More recently, the catastrophic floods of 2022 alone inflicted an estimated 40 billion in damages, or 3.2 trillion rupees(US14.9 billion), according to the World Bank.⁶

This situation presents a compelling case for global climate justice. The severe impacts on Pakistan, a low-emitting nation, underscore a profound ethical dimension, suggesting that countries historically responsible for the bulk of global emissions bear a significant obligation to provide substantial financial and technical assistance for adaptation and addressing loss and damage. The continued vulnerability of Pakistan's agriculture-based economy further amplifies this call for international support, as global mitigation efforts directly influence the future viability of Pakistan's food systems and the well-being of its population.

The deep reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture means that disruptions to this sector ripple throughout the entire national economy and social fabric. Climate change impacts on agriculture are not merely isolated sectoral losses; they represent a systemic risk to Pakistan's national stability. Investing in agricultural resilience is thus critical not only for food production but also for sustaining economic growth, alleviating poverty, fostering social cohesion, and preventing broader supply chain disruptions.⁵ This elevates agricultural climate adaptation to a national security and development priority, demanding comprehensive and strategic interventions.

2. Climate Change Phenomena Affecting Pakistan's Agriculture

Pakistan is grappling with a complex array of climate change phenomena, each exacerbating the vulnerability of its agricultural sector. These interconnected environmental shifts create a challenging and increasingly unpredictable landscape for food production.

Accelerated Glacier Melt and its Impact on Water Systems

Pakistan hosts approximately 7,000 glaciers, the largest concentration outside the polar regions, predominantly located in the northern regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.⁹ These vast ice reserves are melting at an alarming rate, with glaciers in the Himalayan, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush ranges retreating 65% faster than before.⁹ Specific observations include Karakoram glaciers melting at an average of 10 meters per year, with some sections like the Biafo Glacier retreating at 30 meters per year, and the Siachen Glacier shrinking by 50-60 meters per year in recent decades.⁹ This rapid melting poses a severe threat by increasing the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which endanger nearly two million people, as tragically demonstrated by the 2010 flash floods in Gilgit-Baltistan.⁹ Critically, these glaciers are a vital source for sustaining Pakistan's river systems, particularly the Indus River, which forms the backbone of the country's agriculture. Their accelerated disappearance exacerbates water scarcity, especially during the crucial summer months when irrigation demand is highest.⁹ The downstream flow of water into the Indus delta has already decreased by a staggering 80% since the 1950s, a direct consequence of both increased irrigation canals and hydropower dams, as well as the effects of climate change on glacial and snow melt.¹⁰

Rising Temperatures and Intensified Heatwaves

The region has experienced a significant increase in temperatures, rising by approximately 1.5°C to 2°C over the past century, with projections indicating a further increase of 2°C by the end of the 21st century.⁹ Pakistan is specifically expected to face a 2.8°C rise by 2050.¹¹ These rising temperatures contribute to intensified heatwaves, which, in conjunction with low-pressure systems in the Arabian Sea, also contribute to heavy rains in coastal provinces.¹² The impact on agriculture is direct and severe: heatwaves cause crops like wheat to mature earlier than usual, leading to significant yield reductions.¹³ A concerning observation from climate scientists is that "many events projected to happen in 2050 have happened in 2025," indicating that the pace of temperature increase and its associated impacts are far exceeding previous expectations.⁶ This accelerated timeline demands an even greater sense of urgency and a significant scaling up of adaptation and mitigation efforts. It means Pakistan has less time to prepare and implement strategies, making proactive, rather than reactive, measures paramount. This also implies that current long-term climate projections for the region might be conservative, and planning horizons need to be adjusted to account for a more rapid deterioration of climatic conditions, requiring faster innovation and deployment of resilient solutions.

Erratic Precipitation Patterns: Monsoon Variability, Floods, and Droughts

Monsoon rains in Pakistan have become increasingly unpredictable, creating a dual challenge of both excessive moisture that harms root systems and severe water shortages during critical crop development stages.¹ Pakistan has experienced a three- to five-fold increase in the normal amount of rain in some years, which, combined with accelerated glacial melt, has resulted in devastating floods across many regions.¹² The 2022 monsoon floods, for instance, were significantly worsened by human-caused climate change, with rainfall being 10-15% heavier.⁶ These floods were catastrophic, killing over 1,700 people and causing an estimated $40 billion in damage, submerging 4.4 million acres of cropland.⁶ Conversely, prolonged droughts have also become more frequent, severely impacting agricultural areas. Balochistan province, where 70% of the rural population depends on livestock, has been particularly hard-hit by drought.¹⁵ Historical data indicates that droughts from 1999-2003 significantly affected the agricultural sector.⁷ Future predictions suggest that after 2050, extreme droughts and flash floods will increasingly influence both Kharif (summer) and Rabi (winter) season crops.²

Increased Frequency of Extreme Weather Events

Beyond individual phenomena, the overall frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, are rising, destabilizing Pakistan's delicate ecosystems.⁹ Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan suffered from 152 severe weather events.² These events directly lead to widespread crop destruction and significant livestock loss, further compounding the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.¹⁷ The various climatic shifts are not isolated; they are interconnected, with each phenomenon influencing and amplifying others. For example, rising temperatures, erratic weather patterns, and reduced snowfall all contribute to accelerated glacier melt.⁹ Similarly, heavy rains combined with accelerated glacial melt directly lead to devastating floods.¹² This complex interplay means that addressing climate change in Pakistan cannot rely on isolated solutions for individual problems, such as only flood control or only drought management. Instead, it necessitates a holistic, integrated approach that accounts for these feedback loops. For instance, initial glacier melt contributes to flood risk, but the long-term loss of glacial reserves exacerbates chronic water scarcity. This complexity makes adaptation planning more challenging but also highlights the need for synergistic interventions that tackle multiple climate risks simultaneously, such as integrated water resource management that plans for both excess and deficit.

3. Direct Impacts on Agricultural Productivity

Climate change directly compromises Pakistan's agricultural productivity, affecting both crop yields and livestock health through a combination of extreme temperatures, water imbalances, and increased biological threats.

3.1. Crop Production

Impacts on Major Crops (Wheat, Rice, Cotton, Sugarcane, Maize): Yield Reductions and Quality Deterioration

Rising temperatures significantly hinder crop productivity across Pakistan's major agricultural staples. Maximum temperatures adversely affect wheat production, with a 1°C increase potentially leading to a 6-9% decrease in yield.² Projections indicate a 16% decline in wheat yield in South Asian countries, including Pakistan, by 2050 due to warmer temperatures.¹⁸ The March-April 2022 heatwave, for instance, caused a 0.8 million ton decline in wheat production, decreasing average yield by 1.4% per acre and necessitating imports to meet domestic needs.¹⁹ The national space agency, SPARCO, estimated a 10% reduction in wheat production for the 2021-22 season.¹³

Rice, another vital crop, is highly sensitive to heat stress, facing threats of spikelet sterility and variable harvests due to temperature and water availability fluctuations.¹⁴ Cotton and maize also experience reduced productivity in extreme heat scenarios.¹⁴

Devastating floods, such as those in 2022, caused unprecedented damage to these key crops. Sindh Province, a major agricultural hub, experienced an 80% loss of expected rice production (1.9 million tons, valued at USD 543 million).²⁰ Cotton production faced an 88% loss (3.1 million bales, USD 485 million) due to flood inundation and exceptionally heavy rainfall.²⁰ Sugarcane production suffered a 61% loss (10.5 million tons, USD 273 million).²⁰ Beyond staple crops, fruits and vegetables also experience reduced quantity and quality due to unpredictable weather patterns.¹⁴

Effects of Heat Stress, Water Scarcity, and Flood Inundation on Crop Cycles

Prolonged heat stress directly impedes photosynthesis, inhibits plant growth, and ultimately reduces yields across various crops.¹⁴ The timing of these events is crucial; for example, the late onset of the 2021 summer monsoon delayed rice planting and its subsequent harvest, which had a knock-on effect, delaying wheat planting by one to two weeks and increasing the risk of late-season heat stress during critical growth stages in March and April.¹³ Unpredictable monsoon rains lead to a dichotomy: either excessive moisture that harms root systems or severe water shortages during crucial crop development periods.¹⁴ Water scarcity, intensified by melting glaciers and irregular precipitation, directly impacts irrigation systems and the overall water available for agriculture.¹⁴ Flood inundation has long-lasting effects; in many areas of Sindh and lower Balochistan, standing water remained for months after the 2022 floods, killing seasonal crops and delaying subsequent planting cycles.⁸

Soil Degradation: Desertification, Erosion, Waterlogging, and Salinity

Climate change exacerbates existing land degradation issues, severely impacting agricultural productivity. Pakistan's productive land faces critical problems including land desertification, reduction in soil fertility, erosion of soil, water-logging, and salinity.² Desertification is actively consuming fertile land in dry regions like Tharparkar and parts of southern Punjab.¹⁷ The quality of soil is further compromised by excessive chemical fertilizer usage, frequent flooding, and salt accumulation resulting from poor water management practices.¹⁴

Increased Incidence of Pests and Diseases

Hotter and more humid weather conditions create ideal environments for the proliferation of agricultural pests and diseases.¹⁴ This has led to a recent increase in fungal infections and locust infestations, particularly affecting vegetable and cotton harvests.¹⁴ Livestock herders have also observed that climate change has contributed to the emergence of new diseases among their animals, with increased frequency and intensity.³

Observed Shifts in Regional Cropping Patterns

Farmers are proactively, albeit reactively, adapting to these climatic pressures by shifting cropping patterns. A notable trend involves farmers abandoning cotton for sugarcane due to sugarcane's perceived resilience to climate shocks, such as floods, and its higher profitability.²¹ This has resulted in a nearly 40% increase in sugarcane cultivated land over the last eight years, while cotton farmland has fallen by 12% in the last five years.²¹ This represents a form of unplanned agricultural transformation, driven by immediate climate impacts and economic incentives. However, sugarcane, while resilient, consumes "up to 16 times" more water than cotton, and its annual water requirement can be as much as the Mangla dam's storage capacity.²¹ This highlights a critical contradiction: individual farmer adaptation, while rational for survival, can lead to unintended negative consequences at a broader systemic level, such as exacerbating water scarcity. This situation suggests a lack of overarching policy guidance and support for sustainable adaptation, implying that market signals alone are insufficient to guide climate-resilient agriculture. Strategic interventions are needed to ensure that adaptation choices align with long-term national food security, water sustainability, and environmental goals, preventing a "tragedy of the commons" in resource use.

Geographical shifts in cultivation are also observed: cotton cultivation is relocating towards the south into desert lands, with new agricultural areas being established and replacing existing maize and rice cultivation.²² Conversely, rice cultivation is expanding across south and west Punjab, displacing cotton and other seed crops.²² In Sindh, farmers are increasingly switching from summer to winter crops due to more predictable rainfall patterns in the colder months.²³

3.2. Livestock Sector

The livestock sector, a crucial component of Pakistan's agricultural economy, faces significant threats from climate change, impacting animal health, productivity, and the economic stability of herders.

Increased Livestock Diseases and Mortality Rates

Small livestock herders regularly experience severe shocks to their livelihoods due to increased livestock diseases and deaths, directly linked to extreme climatic conditions.³ Herders specifically report that climate change has led to the emergence of new diseases among their animals, with increased frequency and intensity.³ Projections indicate that climate change is expected to generally increase livestock mortality rates.³ The devastating impact of extreme events is evident in the 2022 floods, which killed 42,273 livestock, including sheep, goats, cattle, camels, and buffaloes, resulting in a direct economic loss of USD 13 million in Sindh province alone.²⁰

Fodder Shortages and Reduced Animal Productivity

Prolonged droughts, a recurring climate impact, lead to the widespread death of vegetation and the destruction of vital grazing lands, severely depriving livestock of essential food sources.²⁴ Consequently, herders frequently face low livestock productivity due to chronic fodder shortages, reductions in herd size, or direct animal losses.³ Furthermore, a higher Temperature Humidity Index (THI) has been observed to adversely affect the performance and productivity of exotic cattle and water buffaloes/cattle, impacting their growth and production.¹⁶

Economic Losses for Livestock Herders

The impacts on livestock translate directly into substantial economic losses for herders and the broader agricultural economy. Balochistan province, where a significant 70% of the rural population depends on livestock, has been particularly devastated by drought, leading to immense losses.¹⁵ During drought periods, livestock prices have been observed to decline by up to tenfold, severely impacting the economic stability of affected communities.¹⁵ Beyond direct animal losses, the adverse effects on livestock production have also hampered related industries such as meat production, the carpet industry, wool products, and crucially, the leather industry.¹⁵ The overall negative impact of climate change on livestock significantly increases the vulnerability of small livestock herders, who often have limited alternative income sources.³

4. Water Resources: A Critical Nexus for Agriculture

Water is the lifeblood of Pakistan's agriculture, and climate change is fundamentally altering its availability, distribution, and demand, creating a critical nexus of challenges for the sector.

Climate Change Impacts on the Indus Basin Irrigation System

Pakistan's agricultural production and water supply are heavily reliant on the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). However, this vital system, including the distribution and availability of its water resources, is under severe threat from changing climatic patterns, particularly altered precipitation regimes and accelerated melting of glaciers.²⁵ The downstream flow of water into the Indus delta has already decreased by a drastic 80% since the 1950s, a consequence of increased irrigation canals, hydropower dams, and the effects of climate change on glacial and snow melt.¹⁰ Given that Pakistan depends on irrigation for over 90% of its agricultural production, the stability of the IBIS is paramount for national food security.⁵

Exacerbated Water Scarcity and Competition for Water Resources

Water scarcity is intensifying due to faster glacial melt and erratic precipitation patterns, which directly affect the timing and quantity of water flow.²⁵ Compounding this, the demand for water for non-agricultural purposes is projected to rise significantly due to climate change. Overall water demand is expected to grow by 60% by 2047, with climate warming alone accounting for up to 15% of this increase.²⁶ This necessitates repurposing approximately 10% of all irrigation water to meet rising non-agricultural demand within the next three decades.²⁶ Achieving this without compromising national food security presents a "considerable challenge".²⁶ Globally, water shortages are already impacting crops, energy, and health ¹⁰, with projections indicating that around 850 million to nearly a billion people will be affected by water scarcity by 2100.¹⁰

This situation creates an emerging conflict over water resources, a looming policy dilemma where choices between competing water demands (food production versus urban/industrial use) will become increasingly acute. Such choices could lead to social unrest, exacerbate rural-urban divides, and further compromise food security if not managed through robust, transparent, and equitable water governance mechanisms. This implies the need for innovative water pricing, conservation incentives, and inter-sectoral water allocation policies to mitigate potential conflicts and ensure sustainable development.

Rising Crop Water Requirements Across Agro-Climatic Zones

Rising temperatures due to climate change directly increase evapotranspiration, which in turn significantly raises Crop Water Requirements (CWR).²⁷ Future projections indicate a substantial rise in mean annual CWR across all climatic zones and emissions scenarios in Pakistan.²⁷ This will notably widen the agricultural water demand-supply gap, with arid and semi-arid zones being the most affected. Compared to 2015-2025, by 2091-2100, this gap is projected to increase by 7-15% under the SSP245 scenario and 15-28% under the higher emissions SSP585 scenario for Kharif crops. For Rabi crops, the increase is projected to be 7-13% (SSP245) and 13-32% (SSP585).²⁷ Furthermore, tropical croplands are predicted to decline under many future climate scenarios, while arid to semi-arid croplands will require even more irrigation water to sustain their highest potential crop yield.²²

The shift by farmers towards water-intensive crops, such as sugarcane, as an adaptation strategy to climate shocks like floods, exemplifies a critical systemic contradiction.²¹ While sugarcane offers resilience and profitability for individual farmers, its high water consumption (up to 16 times more than cotton, and annually equivalent to the Mangla Dam's capacity) exacerbates the national water scarcity challenge.²¹ This situation illustrates a "hidden" cost of adaptation, where individual rational choices can lead to collective unsustainable outcomes. It suggests that policy interventions are urgently needed to guide farmer adaptation towards water-efficient and environmentally sustainable choices, rather than allowing market forces and immediate resilience needs to dictate cropping patterns that exacerbate long-term water scarcity. This necessitates a review of agricultural incentives and subsidies to align them with national water conservation goals.

5. Socio-Economic Consequences for Rural Communities

The impacts of climate change on Pakistan's agriculture extend far beyond the fields, profoundly affecting the socio-economic fabric of rural communities, exacerbating poverty, and driving displacement.

Deepening Food Insecurity and Malnutrition

Climate change poses a direct and severe threat to food security in Pakistan.²⁸ The devastating 2022 floods plunged Pakistan's already vulnerable rural population deeper into poverty and acute food insecurity.⁸ Currently, nearly 10.5 million people are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, a situation projected to worsen to approximately 11.8 million in the coming months.⁸ Paradoxically, provinces like Sindh and Balochistan, despite their substantial agricultural output, are grappling with the highest levels of food insecurity and malnutrition in the country.⁸ This is largely due to high levels of poverty, income disparities, and a lack of economic opportunities that prevent families from affording necessary food.⁸

The situation is compounded by rampant inflation; in 2023, rural communities experienced a 50% rise in food prices compared to the previous year, with the overall inflation rate hitting a record 28.3%.⁸ This insidious inflation makes basic necessities increasingly unaffordable, leading to compromised diets, reduced food intake, malnutrition, and a decline in overall health.⁸ Globally, climate change is expected to put an additional 1-183 million people at risk of hunger by 2050.²⁹ The multifaceted nature of this threat to food security extends beyond mere quantity of yield, encompassing nutritional quality, affordability, and accessibility through stable supply chains. Climate change is not only reducing the amount of food produced but also degrading its nutritional value, increasing its cost, and disrupting its distribution. This complex, multi-dimensional food security crisis necessitates interventions beyond just increasing yields, such as promoting diversified, nutrient-rich crops, strengthening market infrastructure, and implementing social safety nets to ensure affordability and access for vulnerable populations.

Diminished Farmer Incomes and Increased Rural Poverty

The direct impacts on agriculture translate into significant economic losses for farmers. A mere 1% rise in temperature can result in an annual loss of Rs 4180 in net profit for farmers.² Decreased crop production directly diminishes the earnings of small-scale farmers.¹⁴ While some larger rural households might see increased real income due to higher market prices for their produce, rural non-farm and urban households, particularly in Balochistan, face the largest decline in real income.³⁰ Smallholder farmers, who constitute the majority of the rural workforce, were particularly devastated by the 2022 floods, losing crops, livestock, and infrastructure, pushing many into deeper poverty.¹ Climate change acts as a powerful force for social and economic stratification, actively widening existing socio-economic disparities. It creates and deepens "poverty traps" for those with limited adaptive capacity and financial buffers, through direct asset loss, increased cost of living, and reduced income-earning opportunities. This underscores the need for climate adaptation policies to be explicitly pro-poor and equity-focused, incorporating targeted social protection measures, financial inclusion initiatives, and capacity-building programs that specifically address the unique vulnerabilities of marginalized communities.

Climate-Induced Migration and Internal Displacement

Climate hazards act as significant catalysts for displacement and migration in Pakistan.³¹ The country's heavy reliance on agriculture, coupled with disastrous floods, exacerbates poverty and drives migration.³¹ Research indicates that heat stress consistently increases long-term migration due to its negative effects on agricultural incomes.³² A substantial number of people, particularly from the Thar Desert, migrate seasonally or permanently each year due to droughts.²⁴ The primary reasons for this migration are threats to their standard of living, including lack of food and clean drinking water, unemployment, and limited educational and medical opportunities.²⁴ Projections suggest that without substantial investments in sustainable water supplies and livelihood sources, up to a million more people could be displaced from the Tharparkar region by 2050.²⁴ In 2020 alone, 829,000 people in Pakistan were displaced as a result of disasters.³³ The mountainous northern regions, like Gilgit-Baltistan, are especially vulnerable to displacement due to intensifying avalanches, flash floods, erratic precipitation, and glacial recessions.³³ Displaced communities are often forced to relocate to unsuitable settlements that lack basic services, creating new vulnerabilities.³³

This pattern of climate migration is frequently a last resort, a coping mechanism adopted when other adaptation strategies fail or are unavailable. It is a symptom of underlying development deficits and inadequate support systems rather than just a direct consequence of a single disaster. The drivers of migration, such as lack of basic services and economic opportunities, suggest that treating climate migration purely as a disaster response issue is insufficient. It is a complex human security challenge that requires holistic interventions addressing the root causes of vulnerability in origin areas. Furthermore, planned and supported resettlement, along with integration services in destination areas, are crucial to prevent the creation of new vulnerabilities and mega-slums.²⁴ This reframes climate migration as a development challenge that requires long-term, integrated planning and investment.

Health Impacts on the Agricultural Workforce

The extreme temperatures and erratic weather patterns have direct negative health implications for the large rural labor force engaged in agricultural production.¹³ There is growing evidence of declining health status among agricultural workers in areas frequently exposed to temperature extremes.¹³ The widespread food insecurity leads to malnutrition and a general decline in overall health among affected populations.⁸ Women and children, due to entrenched gender norms and inequalities, are disproportionately affected during extreme weather events, suffering specific problems related to displacement, education, hygiene, and nutrition.²³

Broader Economic Repercussions on GDP and Supply Chains

The climate change-induced loss of major crop production, such as wheat and rice, is projected to result in a staggering $19.5 billion loss to Pakistan's Real Gross Domestic Product by 2050.³⁰ This decline in agricultural output has a significant multiplier effect, impacting not only the agricultural sector but also broader industrial and business sectors that rely on agricultural raw materials.⁵ Decreased output of major crops leads to significant increases in producer and consumer prices, particularly for processed rice, contributing to high inflation.⁸ This economic instability and disruption to supply chains further threaten the country's overall economic development.⁵

6. Adaptation Strategies and Policy Responses

In response to the escalating climate crisis, Pakistan has seen a range of adaptation efforts at both the grassroots and institutional levels, though significant barriers persist.

6.1. Farmer-Level Adaptations

Pakistani farmers have demonstrated considerable resilience, adopting various innovative strategies to cope with climate change impacts.² These include adjusting planting times, cultivating more drought-tolerant and heat-resistant crop varieties, and diversifying their crops.² For instance, farmers are adopting Thar-2023 millet, a drought-tolerant variety requiring 30% less water, in Sindh's Thar Desert. Similarly, the heat-resistant Chakwal-50 wheat variety has led to a 25% yield increase in Balochistan, even in areas where temperatures regularly exceed 45°C. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the flood-resistant Swat-1 rice variety, capable of withstanding up to 14 days of submergence, is now cultivated by over 12,000 farmers.¹¹

Improved on-farm water management techniques are also being implemented, such as efficient irrigation methods like drip irrigation and laser land leveling.² Agroforestry, involving the planting of native trees like Kikar and Ber in Punjab, has shown success in decreasing wind erosion by 50% and boosting cotton yields by 18%.¹¹ The use of biochar, a carbonized organic matter, is also improving soil moisture retention by 40%, enhancing drought resilience.¹¹

In the livestock sector, herders are adopting strategies like improved feeding practices (diet supplements, grazing management, concentrate/bran feeding), providing better medical facilities and disease control, and actively seeking and updating with seasonal and weather forecast information.³ Livestock diversification and the introduction of improved or stress-tolerant breeds are also observed.³

6.2. National and International Initiatives

Pakistan's National Climate Change Policy (NCCP): Framework and Objectives

Pakistan developed its first National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) in 2012, which was subsequently updated in 2021. The updated policy places an equal emphasis on adaptation and mitigation, with a strong focus on nature-based solutions.³⁴ The NCCP outlines comprehensive objectives, including pursuing sustained economic growth while addressing climate challenges, integrating climate concerns into all national policies, promoting pro-poor and gender-sensitive adaptation measures, building climate-resilient infrastructure, and tracking impacts on water, food, and energy security.³⁶ It also commits Pakistan to a 15% emissions reduction target by 2030 (compared to a 2015 baseline) and an ambitious goal of increasing renewable energy to 60% of the energy mix by 2030, which would require an estimated USD 100 billion by that year.³⁴ The policy specifically addresses vulnerabilities in critical sectors such as water, agriculture, and biodiversity.³⁴

Role of International Organizations (World Bank, UN, USAID) and NGOs in Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)

International partners play a crucial role in supporting Pakistan's climate adaptation efforts. The World Bank and International Finance Corporation (IFC) are jointly supporting climate finance mobilization, facilitating access to international climate finance and private capital, with a particular emphasis on adaptation.²⁶ The World Bank's engagement in Punjab, through projects like the US$200 million Punjab Resilient and Inclusive Agriculture Transformation Project (PRIAT), aims to enhance access to and productivity of agricultural water, improve farmer incomes, and promote climate-smart practices.²⁶ This project is expected to support 30,000 farming households in adopting climate-smart and water-efficient practices over five years, creating around 12,000 employment opportunities.³⁷

The UN Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have implemented significant projects, such as "Transforming the Indus Basin with Climate Resilient Agriculture and Water Management," with a USD 35 million agreement.³⁸ The GCF also approved a second phase of the Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) project, allocating USD 36 million.³⁸ USAID, through its Pakistan Climate Smart Agriculture Activity implemented by Kaizen, collaborates with the private sector, civil society, technology firms, and government stakeholders to strengthen climate resilience and agricultural productivity, particularly for marginalized groups.³⁹ This initiative focuses on improving farmers' adoption of climate-smart agriculture management practices and technologies, increasing the use of digital platforms for information and services, and enhancing support for technology firms developing climate-smart agricultural solutions.³⁹

Social Protection Measures and Crop Insurance Programs

In Punjab, the government has implemented a crop insurance program based on the Area Yield Index Insurance (AYII) Model to provide social protection and financial support to vulnerable rural communities.¹⁹ This program aims to mitigate natural risks and offers financial support to small and subsistence farmers (those with less than 5 acres of land).¹⁹ The Government of Punjab heavily subsidizes this insurance, providing significant premiums for crops like wheat, rice, and cotton.¹⁹ For instance, in Rabi 2021-22, Rs. 450 million was subsidized for wheat, and Rs. 500 million for rice and cotton in Kharif 2022.¹⁹

The program has demonstrated its value, particularly during the 2022 floods. While no claims were registered for wheat or rice due to yield declines not exceeding the 10% benchmark, the cotton crop, which saw a 40-50% yield reduction due to heavy rainfall and floods, triggered substantial claim payouts.¹⁹ The sum insured for cotton was Rs. 50,000 per acre (US

223/acre),withanaggregatefinanciallossofRs.746million(US3.3 million).¹⁹ The government is compensating 83,502 out of 124,816 insured cotton growers, with claim amounts directly transferred to farmers via CNIC for transparent and immediate relief.¹⁹ The program's scale should be enhanced with more funds to benefit a larger portion of farmers, and a comprehensive national crop and livestock insurance program is recognized as essential.¹⁹

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Initiatives and Technologies

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) is recognized as a vital strategy for building resilience in Pakistan's agricultural sector. CSA encompasses agricultural practices and technologies designed to simultaneously boost productivity, enhance resilience, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.³⁷ It focuses on addressing climate change within the agri-food system and systematically considers the synergies and tradeoffs between productivity, adaptation, and mitigation.³⁷

Initiatives include the development of CSA Country Profiles by the World Bank and partners, which provide overviews of agricultural challenges and how CSA can assist in adaptation and mitigation.³⁷ Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plans (CSAIPs) are also developed to mainstream CSA into national agricultural policies and identify investment opportunities, prioritizing climate-resilient infrastructure, capacity building, and knowledge sharing.³⁷ The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT developed CSA profiles for three Pakistani provinces, training 80 national experts and FAO staff who then trained over 1,000 farmers and agricultural practitioners.⁴⁰ These profiles support the design of Farmer Field School curricula and local civil society organization programming.⁴⁰

6.3. Barriers and Limitations to Adaptation

Despite these efforts, significant barriers hinder effective climate change adaptation in Pakistan's agricultural sector. A pervasive issue is the lack of access to crucial information and knowledge among farmers regarding advanced land management practices, optimal use of agricultural inputs, and weather forecasts.⁷ Studies indicate that farmers often rely on traditional knowledge or informal networks, leading to a limited adoption of advanced adaptations.⁷

Access to farm credit services also remains a major constraint. Even when available, farmers may be reluctant to use credit due to high interest rates, and often, funds are diverted for non-agricultural purposes like household items or social events rather than climate change adaptation measures.⁷ Furthermore, extension services, crucial for disseminating new techniques and information, are often limited in reach and sometimes biased towards influential and wealthier farmers, leaving smallholders underserved.⁷

Resource limitations, particularly water scarcity, are fundamental barriers.⁷ Farmers perceive that water availability from canals and rainfall is insufficient, forcing reliance on groundwater, which is often too costly for small landholders. Additionally, limited access to good-quality inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds further impedes adaptive capacity.⁷

Pakistan's National Climate Change Policy, while comprehensive on paper, contains broadly worded provisions that lack detail on how goals will be achieved, failing to specify responsibilities or resources.³⁶ Critics note that the policy is unclear in prioritizing actions, identifying relevant authorities, and lacks mechanisms for coordination with sectoral plans or mainstreaming climate into decentralized governance.³⁶ No specific budgets or funding sources are typically specified, and many provisions remain aspirational rather than actionable plans.³⁶ Consequently, many NCCP measures remain unimplemented or stalled, with coordination gaps, funding shortfalls, and political upheavals contributing to lagging follow-through.³⁶

7. Long-Term Projections and Future Outlook

The long-term trajectory of climate change presents a challenging outlook for Pakistan's agricultural sector, necessitating a proactive and transformative approach to ensure future food and water security.

Projected Agricultural Yield Changes (2050 & 2100)

Global analyses indicate that climate change will significantly reduce crop yields, even with farmer adaptation. Researchers estimate that global yields of calories from staple crops in a high-emissions future will be 24% lower by 2100 than without climate change, with an 8% reduction projected by 2050 regardless of emission scenarios.⁴¹ Specifically for South Asia, including Pakistan, wheat yield is feared to decline by 16% by 2050 due to warmer temperatures.¹⁸ While some studies suggest a 50% chance of global rice yields increasing due to warmer nights, the odds of decline for other staple crops range from 70% to 90% by century's end.⁴¹

At a regional scale within Pakistan, projections for Punjab indicate significant yield reductions across major crops under a 2°C temperature rise scenario by 2115-2116. Wheat yield is projected to decrease by 1-4%, rice by 3-17%, maize by 2-10%, and cotton by 6-18%.⁴² These declines are primarily attributed to rising maximum temperatures, which negatively affect crop production in the long run.⁴³

Future Crop Suitability and Shifting Agro-Ecological Zones

Climate change is expected to drive significant shifts in cropping patterns and crop suitability across Pakistan's agro-ecological zones. National-scale results indicate that shifts are most prominent in Punjab, where cotton cultivation is relocating towards the south into desert lands, replacing existing maize and rice cultivation.²² Conversely, rice cultivation is extending across south and west Punjab, displacing cotton and other seed crops.²² Sugarcane cultivation is becoming more concentrated around major rivers, replacing mixed crops.²² These shifts are driven by extreme climate events, including unprecedented rainfall, floods, and crop water stress.²²

Tropical croplands are predicted to decline under many future climate scenarios, while arid to semi-arid croplands will require even more irrigation water to sustain their highest potential crop yield.²² This implies a fundamental alteration in the agricultural landscape, demanding adaptation strategies that account for changing environmental conditions and resource availability.

Implications for National Food and Water Security

The projected agricultural yield changes and shifts in crop suitability have profound implications for Pakistan's national food and water security. The widening agricultural water demand-supply gap is a critical concern, particularly in arid and semi-arid zones.²⁷ Compared to 2015-2025, by 2091-2100, this gap is projected to increase by 7-15% under the SSP245 scenario and 15-28% under the higher emissions SSP585 scenario for Kharif crops. For Rabi crops, the increase is projected to be 7-13% (SSP245) and 13-32% (SSP585).²⁷ This escalating water stress, combined with declining yields, directly threatens the nation's capacity to feed its population and sustain its agrarian economy.

The long-term outlook underscores the urgency for comprehensive and integrated responses. Without significant interventions, the country faces increased food uncertainty, exacerbated malnutrition, and deepening rural poverty, potentially leading to further social instability and large-scale climate-induced migration. The interconnectedness of these challenges means that solutions must be holistic, addressing not only agricultural productivity but also water governance, socio-economic vulnerabilities, and broader environmental sustainability.

8. Conclusions and Recommendations

Pakistan's agricultural sector stands at a critical juncture, facing an unprecedented confluence of climate change impacts that threaten its foundational role in the national economy and food security. The evidence presented in this report highlights a system under severe stress, characterized by accelerated glacier melt, erratic precipitation, intensifying heatwaves, and their cascading effects on crop yields, livestock health, and water resources. These environmental shifts are not merely external shocks; they are actively reshaping agricultural practices, deepening poverty, and driving human displacement, particularly among the most vulnerable rural communities. The disproportionate burden on Pakistan, a low-emitting nation, underscores a global climate justice imperative, demanding robust international support for adaptation and resilience-building.

To navigate this complex future and build a truly resilient agricultural sector, Pakistan requires a multi-pronged, integrated, and well-funded strategic approach. The following recommendations are critical:

Strengthen Integrated Water Resource Management:
Implement comprehensive water conservation policies and incentivize water-efficient agricultural practices, moving away from water-intensive crops where feasible.²⁶
Invest in modern irrigation technologies (drip, sprinkler, laser land leveling) and rainwater harvesting infrastructure to optimize water use efficiency and ensure equitable distribution across all agro-climatic zones.¹⁴
Develop robust inter-sectoral water allocation policies to manage the growing competition between agricultural and non-agricultural demands, mitigating potential conflicts and ensuring long-term water security.²⁶
Accelerate Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Adoption:
Significantly increase investment in research and development of climate-resilient crop varieties (heat-tolerant, drought-resistant, flood-resistant) and livestock breeds suited to changing conditions.²
Scale up the dissemination and adoption of CSA practices, including agroforestry, biochar application, and sustainable soil management techniques, through enhanced extension services and farmer field schools.¹¹
Leverage digital platforms and early warning systems to provide farmers with timely climate information, weather forecasts, and market insights, enabling proactive decision-making.¹⁴
Enhance Social Protection and Financial Inclusion for Vulnerable Farmers:
Expand and strengthen crop and livestock insurance programs, ensuring broader coverage and timely, transparent payouts to small and subsistence farmers.¹⁹
Improve access to affordable credit facilities, specifically earmarked for climate adaptation investments, and provide financial literacy training to ensure effective utilization.⁷
Implement targeted social safety nets and cash transfer programs to protect the poorest households from the immediate impacts of droughts and floods, preventing them from falling deeper into poverty.²⁶
Reform and Implement Climate Policies Effectively:
Translate the broad objectives of the National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) into actionable plans with clear targets, designated implementing agencies, and allocated budgets.³⁶
Strengthen coordination mechanisms across federal, provincial, and local government levels, as well as with international partners and civil society organizations, to ensure integrated and synergistic climate action.³⁶
Prioritize investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, particularly in flood-affected areas and regions vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).²⁶
Foster International Collaboration and Climate Finance Mobilization:
Advocate strongly for increased international climate finance, particularly for adaptation and addressing loss and damage, aligning with Pakistan's disproportionate vulnerability despite its low emissions.⁶
Explore innovative financing mechanisms, including public-private partnerships, to attract private capital for climate-smart agri-food companies and agri-logistics.²⁶
Engage in global knowledge exchange to learn from successful adaptation strategies implemented in other climate-vulnerable regions.

By embracing these strategic recommendations, Pakistan can move beyond reactive crisis management towards a proactive, resilient, and sustainable agricultural future, safeguarding its economy, environment, and the well-being of its people against the escalating threats of climate change.